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COVID-related policy changes lead to a sharp decline in fuel sales, but things could be leveling off

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Last Updated: 

April 9, 2020

Over the past couple of weeks, we have entered into uncharted territory in the fuel industry. First, a price war between Russia & Saudi Arabia sent oil prices plummeting and introduced significant uncertainty into the market. Then, in what felt like the blink of an eye, COVID-19’s rapid spread across the U.S. led state & local authorities to begin taking unprecedented measures to slow the virus’ spread. 

The effect of these actions on fuel sales was immediate. Within a week of the first actions being taken to combat COVID-19, fuel sales in cities & counties across the country dropped off by at least 15% from pre-COVID daily averages. 

The map below clearly illustrates this trend. We took a look at average daily transactions per fuel station for hundreds of Designated Market Areas (DMAs) across the U.S.; this data includes both sites that are on the GetUpside platform as well as those that are not, and includes data for all DMAs for which we have enough of a sample size to draw meaningful conclusions (you’ll note that some markets, such as Seattle or Salt Lake City, are not included for this reason). The size of each circle represents the population of the DMA; the color (ranging from pale green to dark orange) represents the relative change in average daily transactions per fuel station for the week of March 15-21 versus the period of February 17-March 8. For reference, San Francisco, one of the first localities to take strong action on COVID-19, announced school closures on March 13 and a complete ban on non-essential travel (stay-at-home order) on March 19.



It is immediately apparent that declines have occurred almost everywhere, ranging from the low-single digit percentages (in markets such as Phoenix or Albuquerque) to 30% or more (San Francisco). 

Now, if we fast-forward to this week, it’s clear that major declines continued in practically every market. The map below shows the same data, but for the period of March 28-April 3. In the space of about two weeks, things have significantly worsened. Every single DMA for which we have meaningful data in the U.S. is showing declines, with the hardest-hit areas - such as Chicago, Miami, New York, & San Francisco - declining by 50-60%.



However, when we zoom in to look at specific markets, two things become readily apparent:

  1. Declines in fuel sales predictably follow key policy changes made in response to COVID-19
  2. Based on evidence from the most recent few days’ worth of data, it appears that there may be a floor in terms of how far fuel sales will fall, and that markets tend to level off at a new steady-state of volume

Let’s take a look at two markets that were among the first to institute strict measures to combat COVID-19, San Francisco & Los Angeles. Both cities announced the closure of all public schools on March 13, and later issued stay-at-home orders on March 19. 

As you can see in the two charts below, fuel sales declined significantly in both cities’ DMAs in the days following these announcements; in San Francisco, sales fell by ~25% in the days following school closure and then fell by up to ~75% in the days following the announcement of the stay-at-home order. A similar trend appears in Los Angeles, where fuel sales fell by ~20% and ~50% after the announcement of school closures and the stay-at-home order, respectively.



However, while fuel sales fell sharply in the 3-4 days after the announcement of the stay-at-home order, both markets have shown a slight uptick in volume more recently. By March 27, volume had returned to roughly ~50% of pre-COVID levels in both markets; it has remained around that level, with slight fluctuations, for the past week. 

A similar trend appears to have taken place across many other markets where we now have at least a couple of weeks’ worth of post-COVID data. In fact, major markets such as New York, Boston, Chicago, & Washington, DC, all appear to have stabilized at around ~50% of pre-COVID volume.

It’s too early to know for sure whether these are signs that fuel sales may have reached a floor and are now leveling out for the foreseeable future, but we’ll be closely watching the data for these markets, as well as all other markets for which we have data, to see if this trend holds. 

We’ll continue to post reports as we learn new things from our analyses. In the meantime, we will be updating the two charts displayed on our landing page with the latest data, so be sure to check back often!